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  #631  
Old 09-14-2017, 04:59 PM
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Date : 14th September 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 14th September 2017.




FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets declined amid profit taking. Markets have come quite a way up from recent lows and it seems investors need another catalyst before taking things further. The Nikkei is down -0.25%, the Hang Seng lost -0.62% so far and U.K. and U.S. futures are also in the red ahead of today’s SNB and BoE announcements. Both central banks are widely expected to keep policy on hold, but the BoE’s statement in particular will be watched carefully after this week’s higher than expected inflation number. Gilt yields moved higher yesterday, while the FTSE 100 closed in the red, despite slight gains on other European stock markets. Bund yields also moved up slightly but closed below the 0.4% mark and so far at least it seems the ECB is successful in dampening the impact of its move towards a further reduction in monthly asset purchase volumes, even though yields should have bottomed out. Central bank meetings aside, the European calendar has plenty of ECB speak as well as final inflation data from Italy and France. Released overnight, the U.K. RICS house price balance came in higher than anticipated.

China: China’s retail sales today morning, industrial production and fixed investment were disappointing in August. Retail sales slowed to a 10.1% y/y pace in August from the 10.4% rate of expansion in July. But year to date retail sales growth was 10.4% in August, matching July. Industrial production growth was 6.0% y/y in August versus the 6.4% rate in July. But year to date production dipped to 6.7% from 6.8%. Fixed investment (excluding rural households) slowed to a 7.8% y/y growth pace in August from 8.3% in July. But foreign direct investment did improve to a 9.1% y/y pace in August from 2.3% in July, after contracting 3.7% in May and falling 4.3% in April. The CSI 300 is 0.1% firmer, the Shanghai comp is also 0.1% in the green while the Shenzhen comp is up 0.2%.

Australia: The employment surged 54.2k in August following a revised 29.3k gain in July (was +27.9k). The increase was more than double expectations. The details were strong – full time jobs grew 40.1k after a revised 19.9k drop (was -20.3k) while part time jobs improved 14.1k following a 49.1k rise (was +48.2k). The unemployment rate was 5.6% in August, matching the rate in July. The participation rate rose to 65.3% in August from 65.1%. AUDUSD jumped to 0.8015 from 0.7975 on the report, and has edged slightly lower to 0.8006.

US reports: a 0.2% August U.S. PPI headline with a 0.1% core price increase undershot estimates thanks to a lean 0.1% service price increase, with a flat trade service figure and a 0.3% gain for transportation and warehousing services. We saw the largely expected figure for goods prices, with a 3.3% energy price rise and a 1.3% food price drop that left a 0.5% rise for the goods component overall. It is tentatively expected a hurricane-led 0.5% PPI rise in September with a 0.2% core price increase thanks to a pop in gasoline prices and an assumed rise in service prices. The y/y PPI rise should climb to 2.6%, after rising to 2.4% in August from 1.9% in July, while the y/y core PPI rises to 2.1% from 2.0% in August and 1.8% in July. Oil prices have largely moved sideways in 2017, though we’ve also seen a drop in the dollar and a stronger global economy that has boosted commodity prices, after the opposite 2016 pattern of dollar and oil price gains, but global growth weakness. Upward 2017 price pressure has been limited by the absence of an inventory recovery despite a petro-rebound that is trimming excess capacity.

Main Macro Events Today

SNB announcement– The Swiss central bank will publish the latest quarterly policy review today and is widely expected to keep key policy settings unchanged. Officials have welcomed reduced pressure on the CHF, but still see volatility in forex markets and with the ECB inching only very gradually towards the end of QE and geopolitical risks on the rise again, the SNB is firmly on hold. as it watches developments in the Eurozone and Brexit negotiations.

BOE announcement – September BoE Monetary Policy Committee meeting is due today, in which no change outcome is expected, albeit with the two dissenters from the previous two meetings, Saunders and McCafferty, repeating their votes for a 25 bp hike in the repo rate to reverse the post-Brexit “emergency” cut and return the repo to 0.5%. Not much change is anticipated in the tone of the guidance from that delivered in August, when the central bank was able to expand its view in its quarterly inflation report, which brought downward revisions to growth and inflation forecasts. The market consensus is for the BoE to refrain from change policy settings until 2019.

US CPI & Unemployment Claims – CPI will be a focal point today, forecast to rebound 0.3% in August from a 0.1% reading in July, while core should remain subdued at 0.1%; on a core y/y basis CPI should remain in the 1.7% area, well shy of the Fed’s 2.0% target. Initial jobless claims may retrace their steps -8k to 290k following the 62k surge to 298k after Harvey, before being distorted again by Irma’s impact, making a wreck of underlying employment trends for some time to come.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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  #632  
Old 09-15-2017, 04:31 PM
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Date : 15th September 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 15th September 2017.




FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mixed. The Nikkei is up 0.58%, as Japanese markets shrugged of yet another missile test conducted by North Korea. Hang Seng and CSI 300 is moving sideways and the ASX is currently down -0.71%. U.K. and U.S. stock futures are also down. The surge higher in Sterling following yesterday’s BoE warning that a rate hike may be necessary in coming months, already saw the UK100 heading south yesterday and the index closed down -1.14% on Thursday, with the dip in futures suggesting further losses today. Gilts jumped 8.5 bp yesterday and may still have a way to go, and while Bunds are likely to outperform again, peripherals may feel the pressure from a fresh wave of geopolitical tensions. Today’s local calendar is pretty quiet, with only Eurozone trade numbers.

US reports: revealed big Harvey-boosts for August CPI and weekly initial claims, with Irma-boosts still in the pipeline. For CPI, we saw big gains of 0.402% for the headline and 0.248% for the core, with hurricane-boosts via a 2.8% energy price rise and a 4.4% spike for lodging away from home, with additional firmness across the major components. For claims, we saw a 14k drop to a lofty 284k, after a 62k Harvey-surge to 298k at the start of the month that included a 52k surge in Texas. It is expected that Irma will lift next week’s claims by 26k to 310k, as a Florida surge is partly offset by a Texas drop-back. Since Irma struck during the BLS survey week, a 100k hurricane hit to the September nonfarm payroll figure is anticipated that leaves a 90k rise.

UK: The pound has seen little bounce following the spike-rally in the wake of the BoE’s laying of the groundwork for a rate hike, the first time the Old Lady has done this in a decade. The last time the BoE hike rates was in July 2007, when it lifted the repo to 5.75% from 5.50%. Now, following a once-in-a-lifetime financial crisis and a status-quo disrupting vote to leave the EU, the BoE is at long last set pull on the rate hike lever again, in this case to reverse last August’s so-called post-Brexit vote “emergency” cut by lifting the repo rate to 0.50%. Up until last week, the consensus had been for the BoE to remain on hold through to 2019. The pound is expected to will remain bid for now, given this backdrop,however there is a general concern given the risk of bad news from the Brexit front. Former BoE governor, Mervyn King, who was a Brexit advocate, warned that the UK was likely to fall out of the EU without a new trading deal in place.

Main Macro Events Today

US Retail Sales – Retail sales are pegged to rise 0.1% headline in August vs 0.6% in July, though ex-autos may increase 0.5% indeed, there is some downside risk, as Harvey has already shown up in lower auto sales. The Empire State index is expected to dive to 18.2 in September from 25.2 in August,

US Industrial Production & UoM Sentiment – The Industrial Production may sink 0.1% in August; capacity use may accordingly dip to 76.8% from 76.7%. Preliminary Michigan sentiment may bounce to 95.1 in September vs 96.8 in August and business inventories are seen rising 0.2% in July vs 0.5%.

MPC Vlieghe Speech – MPC Member Vlieghe is due to speak about UK Economy and monetary Policy at the Society of Business Economists’ Annual Conference, in London, at 8:50 GMT.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
__________________
HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers. Retail, IB and White Label Clients have the opportunity to access interbank spreads and liquidity via state of the art automated trading platforms.
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  #633  
Old 09-18-2017, 04:46 PM
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Date : 18th September 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 18th September 2017.




FX News Today

Signs of rising price pressures, including a resurgence in oil, are bringing central banks back into play, and the markets are responding. The pound was given extra rocket by a BoE dove Vlieghe who turned hawkish, saying that a hike could come “as early as in the coming months.” This was notable as Vlieghe has been one of the most dovish members on the policy committee (the only dissenter in favor of cutting rates in July 2016, before the Brexit vote). The markets are now discounting a rate hike at the November MPC meeting. Meanwhile, the FOMC meets this week and all eyes will be on the dot-plot and whether one more tightening remains in the cards for this year. Other monetary policy meetings include the BoJ, the Philippines BSP, the Taiwan CBC, and Bank Indonesia. Meanwhile the German General Elections are on the doorstep next weekend.

United States: The U.S. focus will be firmly on the FOMC this week (Tuesday, Wednesday), and particularly QT and the dot plot. Despite the various risk events of late, the Fed is widely expected to announce the start of the unwind of the balance sheet, which will be very gradual in nature as per the path it laid out in June. Of more importance will be the dot-plot forecasts and what they suggests about rate moves this year and through 2019. Data is relatively light this week, with a concentration on housing numbers, with manufacturing and trade price reports as well. However, hurricane disruptions will limit their usefulness.August housing starts (Tuesday) are projected to dip modestly to 1.150 mln after tumbling 4.8% to 1.155 mln in July. Existing home sales for August (Wednesday) should bounce 0.7% to a 5.47 mln unit pace, after falling 1.3% in July to 5.44 mln. Sales have fallen in 4 of the 7 months to date, thanks in large part to lack of inventory. The September NAHB homebuilder sentiment survey (Monday) should be unchanged. Markit manufacturing and services PMIs for September (Friday) will be impacted. The Philly Fed manufacturing index (Thursday) is expected to be little changed at 18.0 in September.

Canada: Canada’s calendar features key economic data releases this week that will fine tune BoC expectations for the October 25 meeting. The CPI (Friday) is expected to expand 0.2% in August (m/m, nsa) . Retail sales (Friday) are expected to grow 0.3% in July (m/m, sa) after the 0.1% rise in June. Manufacturing sales (Tuesday) are expected to fall 1.5% in July (m/m, sa) after the 1.8% drop in June. A 4.9% plunge in export values in July after the 5.0% drop in June drives our projection for July manufacturing shipments. Wholesale sales (Thursday) are expected to fall 1.0% in July (m/m, sa) after the 0.5% drop in June. The international securities transactions report for July is due Monday. Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Lane delivers a speech on Monday titled “How Canada’s International Trade is Changing with the Times”. His speech will be available at 14:00 ET.

Europe: Central banks and geopolitical risks continue to take center stage. Comments from ECB speakers this week, including Draghi, as well as the ECB’s latest economic bulletin, are likely to confirm that the central bank is heading for another QE extension but with reduced monthly purchase volumes. All the while, the German general election on September 24 is coming into view. Polls are giving Merkel’s conservative CDU/CSU party a very large lead, but not enough votes for an absolute majority. Hence, Germany is almost certainly headed for a yet another Merkel-led coalition government, and most likely once again with the socialist SPD as the junior partner. The first round of confidence surveys for September in the form of ZEW and PMI readings will be important for the overall outlook. The September ZEW Economic Sentiment index (Tuesday) is seen rising to 12.0 from August’s 10.0 print. Meanwhile, a moderation in the manufacturing PMI to 57.2 from the prior 57.4 is expected, while the services reading is expected to rise slightly to 54.9 from 54.7 in August. The data calendar also has German producer price inflation for July, the final reading of French Q2 GDP and Eurozone current account and BoP data for July.

UK: Sterling markets will continue to digest the BoE’s unexpectedly hawkish statement of last Thursday, which laid the groundwork for a rate hike before year-end. A 25 bp rate hike at the November Monetary Policy Committee meeting is widely expected, which would reverse the “emergency” post-Brexit vote rate cut from August 2016. November is the logical choice for what would be the first tightening by the BoE since 2007, since this is the month that the next quarterly edition of the inflation report is due. The October EU Summit will have come and gone by then, and, hopefully, the Brexit process will be clearer. The calendar this week is fairly quiet. September data will start to make an appearance, including the Rightmove house price index (Monday) and the CBI industrial trends survey (Friday). While there is a chance for a post-summer activity in the housing market, hence the house price data expected to show fresh signs of slowing, a process which has been driven in recent months by a drop off in demand with average household finances having been pressured by the rise in inflation and weak pay awards. The CBI survey, meanwhile, should reaffirm that the production sector of the economy remains in relatively rude health, aided by exchange rate competitiveness and strong global growth. August retail sales data are also due (Wednesday), where a modest 0.2% m/m lift is anticipated.

New Zealand: has Q2 GDP (Thursday), which expected to grow 0.9% after the 0.5% gain in Q1 (q/q, sa). The current account is expected to shift to a -NZ$100 mln deficit from the NZ$244 mln surplus in Q1. The general election will take place on Saturday. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand meets next on September 28. No change is expecred to the current 1.75% rate setting through year-end. Grant Spencer takes over as acting governor on September 27 for a six month stint. Governor Wheeler is retiring as his term ends. A permanent successor will be appointed in 2018.

Japan: Japan is closed Monday for Respect-for-the Aged Day. The BoJ begins its 2-day policy meeting (Wednesday) with the announcement (Thursday). No changes are expected to the Bank’s ultra-loose policy, given the cool inflation backdrop. The August trade report (Wednesday) should see a narrowing in the surplus to JPY 50.0 bln from 421.7 bln previously. The July all-industry index (Thursday) should fall 0.2% m/m versus the prior 0.4% increase..

Australia: The minutes to the September meeting are due Tuesday. Assistant Governor (Economic) Luci Ellis speaks at the Australian Business Economists (ABE) conference, Sydney (Wednesday). Governor Lowe discusses “The Next Chapter” at the American Chamber of Commerce in Australia Business Briefing, Perth (Thursday). The Q2 housing price index (Tuesday) highlights a sparse calendar of economic data this week.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
__________________
HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers. Retail, IB and White Label Clients have the opportunity to access interbank spreads and liquidity via state of the art automated trading platforms.
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  #634  
Old Yesterday, 05:15 PM
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Date : 19th September 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 19th September 2017.




FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets traded mixed overnight. Japanese markets got a boost by speculation of a snap election, after Abe confirmed reports that he is considering a vote ahead of schedule. Catch up trade after yesterday’s holiday also underpinned a nearly 2% rise in the Nikkei. Elsewhere markets are marginally in the red as markets turn cautious ahead of tomorrow’s Fed announcement. U.K. and U.S. stock futures are also little changed. returned from yesterday’s holiday. The calendar gets more interesting today with the release of German ZEW investor confidence, which we expect to show a slight improvement in the expectations reading to 12.0 from 10.0 in the previous month.

BoE Governor Carney walked back hawkish guidance, saying that “any prospective increases in Bank Rate would be expected to be at a gradual pace and to a limited extent, and be consistent with monetary policy continuing to provide substantial support to the economy.” He also stressed that there “remain considerable risks to the UK outlook, which include the response of households, businesses, and financial markets to developments related to the process of EU withdrawal.” More specifically on Brexit, Carney argued that the “de-integration effects” of Brexit can be expected to be “inflationary.” Carney is evidently displeased with the markets reaction to the BoE’s statement last week, where markets seemed to run with the hawkish soundbites while ignoring the dovish soundbites. The pound, on the ebb after the outsized gains of last Thursday and Friday, declined further as markets responded to Carney’s remarks. Prospects for a “dovish tightening” should keep a lid on the pound’s upside potential.

BOC Gov Council Member Lane held out a gradualist fig leaf to the market, or at least that is how his speech and comments were interpreted by GoCs and the loonie, as yields dropped and USD-CAD jumped to two-week high. The Deputy Governor, in a Q&A with the audience following his speech, said the BoC will take the Canadian Dollar into account “strongly,” according to Bloomberg news. The Bank does not know how the economy will react to higher rates. The policy rate is still low relative to neutral levels, and rates below neutral are still appropriate given risks. The current level of interest rates are “exceptional.” Unlike the Fed, BoC speakers have spoken with one voice, so Lane’s outing is interesting following last week’s defense of the Bank’s communication strategy between July and September and Wilkins’ reminder that all meetings are “live.” Lane himself reiterated that all meetings are live. There is plenty here to suggest they will take a breather next month and perhaps shift to a more gradualist strategy. That being said, more firm data would tip the balance in favour of a rate hike, given that each announcement is “live.” Note that Poloz speaks on September 27th, and he will take questions from the press. Today’s speech does significantly trim the odds for a move next month however.

Main Macro Events Today

German ZEW – A slight improvement in the expectations reading to 12.5 from 10.0 in the previous monthis anticipated, indicating that optimists still outnumber pessimists and that confidence stabilised slightly in line with stocks, after being hit by geopolitical risks in the previous survey round. Even if the ZEW comes in much weaker than anticipated, it would only support the arguments of the doves at the ECB, who are reluctant to commit to an end date for QE just yet, while a stronger than expected number is unlikely to prompt a majority for Weidmann’s push to end QE.

US Housing Stats – August housing starts are projected to dip modestly to 1.150 mln after tumbling 4.8% to 1.155 mln in July. Risk is to the downside due to disruptions from Harvey.

Canada Manufacturing – Manufacturing shipments values, are expected to reveal a 1.5% m/m drop in July after the 1.8% decline in June. This projection is supported by a tremendous 4.9% plunge in export values during July. Prices played a role however, with the IPPI down 1.5% (m/m, nsa). Hence the decline in the manufacturing shipment volume measure may be less pronounced.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
__________________
HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers. Retail, IB and White Label Clients have the opportunity to access interbank spreads and liquidity via state of the art automated trading platforms.
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  #635  
Old Today, 05:01 PM
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Date : 20th September 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 20th September 2017.




FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are narrowly mixed and fluctuating at high levels, as trading volumes are low and investors await the Fed decision The MSCI Asia Pacific index has gained around 22% this year, despite escalating tensions with North Korea. FTSE 100 futures are slightly higher, while U.S. futures are in the red, ahead of the Fed, which is widely expected to announce the start of the balance sheet unwind, or QT (quantitative tightening), while leaving its rate posture unchanged. The BoJ will announce its decision tomorrow, and central banks and geopolitics remain driving factor for markets. Reports that there is still no broad majority at the ECB for a commitment to an end date for QE saw yields correcting again in the Eurozone yesterday, while the BoE’s flagging of the need for a rate hike in coming months has kept Gilt yields underpinned. Today’ calendar includes U.K. retail sales, but is unlikely to take the focus away from the Fed.

German producer price inflation higher than expected. The annual rate rose to 2.6% y/y in August, from 2.2% y/y in the previous month. A renewed uptick in energy prices was the main factor and energy prices rose 0.4% m/m, fuel prices 0.9% m/m and annual rates rose to 2.7 %y/y and 3.9% y/y respectively. Annual food price inflation fell back slightly, but at 5.3% y/y remains very higher and PPI excluding energy rose to 2.6% y/y from 2.5% y/y. Overall PPI remains below the highs seen earlier in the year, but seems to have bottomed out and the data will back the arguments of the hawks at the ECB, who are fighting for the end of additional asset purchases

U.S. reports: revealed upside surprises for both housing starts and trade prices in August, alongside a wider than expected Q2 current account deficit. For starts, we saw August declines of 0.8% for starts and a big 10.2% for completions, but we also saw a 5.7% pop for permits, a strong trajectory for starts under construction, and upward starts revisions that left a solid Q3 path. For trade prices, we saw big 0.6% August headline import and export price increases led by oil imports and nonagricultural exports with a likely Harvey-boost, before an assumed September lift from Irma. The U.S. current account gap widened to $123.1 bln from $113.5 (was $116.8) bln in Q1 thanks to a surge in the deficit on secondary income.

Canada’s manufacturing drop yesterday is suggestive of tame July GDP growth, at best. Factory shipment volumes fell 1.4% in June (values dropped 2.6%). We have penciled in a 0.1% rise for July GDP estimate, which would follow the 0.3% gain in June. A 0.5% decline in wholesale shipment volumes is projected, while retail sales volumes are seen improving 0.3%. Housing starts grew 4.5% to a 222.0k pace in July from 212.5k in June. Hence, the contribution from construction production should be positive. The outlook for mining, oil and gas production is to the downside. Energy export values fell 3.7% m/m in July after plummeting 11.3% m/m in June. However, the manufacturing report’s petro and coal shipments measure did edge up 0.6% in value after the hefty 7.0% drop in June. A 0.1% rise in July GDP would leave the measures on track for a 2.5% pace in Q3 (q/q, saar) which we expect for the separate quarterly measures. The BoC’s base-case estimates projected a slowing in GDP growth during the second half of this year.

Main Macro Events Today

UK Retail Sales – August retail sales data are due today, where expected a modest 0.2% m/m lift.

FOMC Rate Decision and Conference – FOMC began its 2-day meeting and is widely expected to announce the start of the balance sheet unwind, or QT (quantitative tightening), while leaving its rate posture unchanged. Remember this is a quarterly meeting that includes the release of economic/price forecasts (SEP – Summary of Economic Projections) and a Yellen press conference. Of importance to the rate outlook is the dot-plot and the nuances in the Fed chair’s remarks. The Committee was still expecting a total of three rate hikes this year at the June 13, 14 meeting, and that’s expected to be the case this time too, keeping the door open for a tightening at the December 12, 13 meeting. It is also expected that the FOMC will maintain the consensus view of three hikes in 2018. While the Fed believes there should be little market reaction to the gradual and well telegraphed unwinding of the balance sheet, it should be “like watching paint dry,” said Yellen in June, officials may be too complacent in their overall assessment on the market responses to policy actions.

US Existing Home Sales – Existing home sales for August should bounce 0.7% to a 5.47 mln unit pace, after falling 1.3% in July to 5.44 mln. Sales have fallen in 4 of the 7 months to date, thanks in large part to lack of inventory.

NZD GDP – The Q2 GDP, expected to grow 0.9% after the 0.5% gain in Q1 (q/q, sa).

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers. Retail, IB and White Label Clients have the opportunity to access interbank spreads and liquidity via state of the art automated trading platforms.
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