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  #911  
Old 11-14-2017, 10:46 PM
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FOREX NEWS: HEADS OF CENTRAL BANKS GATHER FOR PANEL DISCUSSIONS. BREAKOUTS EXPECTED


EUR/USD


Forex News: The pair showed a ranging session yesterday, approaching the 50 period EMA and then bouncing higher, without enough force to break resistance. The lack of major economic releases contributed to the slow movement.



Technical Outlook

Price remains range-bound, capped to the upside by the resistance at 1.1670 and to the downside by the 50 Exponential Moving Average. Today we have a busier day, with more economic data than yesterday, so we expect to see a break of horizontal resistance (1.1670) or dynamic support (50 EMA) and the break will probably decide the direction for the day. As long as these technical indicators are intact, our bias is neutral.

Fundamental Outlook

At 10:00 am GMT the Flash version of the Eurozone GDP comes out, showing the overall performance of the economy. The expected change is 0.6%, same as previous and usually a higher number strengthens the Euro but to a limited extent.

At the same time the German ZEW Economic Sentiment survey is released, showing the opinions of about 300 German institutional analysts and investors about the state of the economy, as well as an outlook for the next 6 months. The forecast is 19.8 and higher numbers show optimism, thus strengthening the single currency.

At the same time, 10:00 am GMT, ECB President Draghi, Fed Chair Yellen and BOE Governor Carney will participate in a panel discussion named “At the heart of policy: challenges and opportunities of central bank communication”. The discussion will take place at the Central Bank Communications Conference hosted by the ECB, in Frankfurt and the impact cannot be predicted but caution is recommended.


GBP/USD

He Pound dropped early in yesterday’s trading session due to concerns that British Prime Minister May could be asked to step down by her own political party. After dropping below 1.3100 support the pair recovered some of the losses.



Technical Outlook

Although price moved above 1.3100 after initially breaking it, the short term momentum still favours the bears and for today we expect to see a break of 1.3100 and a consequent move into 1.3030. As an alternate scenario, if the pair breaks the 50 period EMA to the upside, it will probably move into the resistance at 1.3175.

Fundamental Outlook

The day’s main event for the Pound will be the release of the British Consumer Price Index, scheduled at 9:30 am GMT and expected to show a change of 3.1% compared to the previous 3.0%. This is the main gauge of inflation and is carefully watched by the Bank of England when deciding where to set the interest rate. Higher values usually strengthen the Pound.

BOE Governor Carney will participate in the panel discussion mentioned earlier and this can generate increased volatility on Pound pairs.
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  #912  
Old 11-15-2017, 08:17 PM
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FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR UNDER HEAVY PRESSURE AHEAD OF INFLATION AND RETAIL SALES DATA


EUR/USD


Forex News: Selling pressure around the greenback increased yesterday and the pair broke above the resistance at 1.1670, a fact which triggered additional upside movement.



Technical Outlook

Yesterday the pair moved about 100 pips higher, which can be considered a huge move given the lack of volatility seen lately. Strong moves are usually followed by a pullback before price can advance further and this view is also supported by the fact that the Relative Strength Index and Stochastic are both overbought. After this potential retracement, we expect the upside movement to continue towards 1.1825 resistance but a lot will depend on the U.S. data released today.

Fundamental Outlook

It’s a big day for the greenback, with two important releases: the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Retail Sales, both scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT. The CPI shows changes in the price that consumers pay for the goods and services they purchase and acts as one of the main gauges of inflation. The forecast for today is 0.1% and higher numbers usually strengthen the currency. The CORE version of the indicator, which excludes food and energy from calculation will be released at the same time and expected to show a change of 0.2%.

The Retail Sales are expected to show a change of 0.0% from the previous 1.6% and because this is the main gauge of consumer spending, higher than anticipated numbers strengthen the US Dollar and the opposite is true for lower numbers.


GBP/USD

The pair remained relatively choppy yesterday, with some bearish movement generated by the worse than expected British CPI value (actual 3.0%, forecast 3.1%). Most of the action took place near 1.3100, without substantial developments.



Technical Outlook

Price action is choppy lately and all moves result in candles with long wicks, which is a clear sign of indecision. The ranging phase will continue until a breakout occurs. The levels to watch are 1.3100 (a break should be confirmed by a re-test), followed by 1.3030 to the downside. To the upside the 50 period Exponential Moving Average is the first potential resistance, followed by 1.3175.

Fundamental Outlook

At 9:30 am GMT the British Average Earning Index comes out, showing changes in the price paid by employers for labour. A higher number indicates that inflation may increase in the near future because if businesses pay higher labour costs, this will usually translate into a higher price paid by the consumer. Today’s forecast is 2.1%, while the previous was 2.2%.
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  #913  
Old 11-17-2017, 10:49 PM
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FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR POSTS MINOR GAINS, POUND BOOSTED BY RETAIL SALES NUMBERS


EUR/USD


Forex News: The Final version of the Eurozone CPI matched analysts’ expectations yesterday so the release didn’t have a substantial impact and the pair showed choppy movement throughout the day, with a bearish bias.



Technical Outlook

The last few candles show very long wicks, especially in their upper part, which is a sign that bullish pressure is not yet high enough to resume the upwards movement. Today we may see a move lower, into the support at 1.1735 but overall the pair remains in a short term uptrend and the Relative Strength Index has cleared its overbought condition so after the retracement finds support, we will probably see a move up.

Fundamental Outlook

Today at 8:30 am GMT, ECB President Mario Draghi will deliver a speech at the Frankfurt European Banking Congress. The impact of the event cannot be anticipated but caution is always advised when heads of central banks speak publicly.

On the US Dollar side we have the Building Permits, scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT and expected to show a reading of 1.25 Million. The indicator shows the annualized number of construction permits and acts as a gauge of activity in the construction sector; numbers above expectations usually strengthen the greenback but the impact is medium.


GBP/USD

The British Retail Sales came out above expectations yesterday and this was the main reason for the climb seen early in the session. However, the pair remained in a range overall.



Technical Outlook

Price is currently testing 1.3175 from above and if this level will turn into support, rejecting the pair higher, then we will most likely see an encounter with the resistance at 1.3225. A break of that level would show that the pair is ready to exit the range that confined it during the last period, and head into 1.3280. As long as price is trading above the 50 EMA our bias is slightly bullish.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound will not be affected by economic data today, so the main focus will be the technical side and the U.S. release mentioned earlier.
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  #914  
Old 11-20-2017, 10:14 PM
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FOREX NEWS: EURO IN THE SPOTLIGHT: ECB PRESIDENT DRAGHI TESTIFIES TWICE


EUR/USD


Forex News: Friday’s price action was characterized by a sharp climb that nearly touched 1.1825 resistance but soon after, the pair slowed down and consolidated below 1.1800. The U.S. construction data was better than anticipated but the impact was limited.



Technical Outlook

The pair has now printed a lower high and failed to break the resistance at 1.1825, which shows that upwards momentum is fading. This means that we will possibly see an encounter with Friday’s low at 1.1756 but overall today we expect the pair to remain between 1.1825 and 1.1756 support unless Draghi’s testimony offers surprises.

Fundamental Outlook

The day’s only notable event is the double testimony of ECB President Mario Draghi, before the European Parliament Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee. The topic is economy and monetary policy, so volatility is likely to increase during his speech, which is scheduled at 2:00 pm GMT.

Two hours later, at 4:00 pm GMT, the ECB President will testify again before the same Committee, but this time the topic will be the European Systemic Risk Board. Caution is advised during both speeches.


GBP/USD

The pair accelerated to the upside early during Friday’s session, only to drop abruptly soon after without apparent reason other than fresh sell orders.



Technical Outlook

Price is advancing higher but the pair is prone to sharp moves to either side. As long as 1.3175 support remains intact, the upside movement is likely to continue but overall we expect choppy price action. The levels to watch are Friday’s top at 1.3260 and the support mentioned earlier, together with the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any economic releases for today, so the technical side will take center stage.
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  #915  
Old Yesterday, 10:53 PM
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FOREX NEWS: POUND IN THE LIMELIGHT AS BOE GOVERNOR CARNEY TESTIFIES ON INFLATION AND ECONOMIC OUTLOOK


EUR/USD


Forex News: Price dropped very early during yesterday’s trading session but support pushed it higher and all losses were nullified. The Euro was initially unfazed by Draghi’s testimony, who mentioned that economic expansion is solid but was less hawkish about inflation.



Technical Outlook

After dropping into the confluence zone created by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the horizontal support at 1.1735, the pair bounced strongly to the upside, moving above the session’s opening price. However, the last candles are showing bearish pressure and price dropped once again, so it’s unclear what the next move will be. For the short term we expect to see another encounter with the confluence zone mentioned earlier and the way price behaves there will offer more clues about future direction.

Fundamental Outlook

The Euro will have a light economic day, without any major data coming out and on the US Dollar side the only notable event is the release of the Existing Home Sales numbers, scheduled at 3:00 pm GMT. The indicator shows the annualized number of houses sold during the previous month, excluding new buildings. The expected number is 5.42 Million and higher values show a healthy economy, so the Dollar is positively affected.


GBP/USD

The Pound showed bullish momentum since early in yesterday’s trading session and this allowed the pair to climb for a perfect touch of 1.3280 resistance.



Technical Outlook

Current momentum favours the bulls but as long as 1.3280 resistance remains intact, the probability of a drop is high. The first lower barrier and form of support is represented by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, followed by 1.3175. To the upside, a break of 1.3280 would open the door for the key level at 1.3320.

Fundamental Outlook

The Inflation Report Hearings take place today at 10:00 am GMT and during these meetings, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will testify on inflation and economic outlook before the Parliament's Treasury Committee. Depending on Carney’s attitude and answers, the Pound is likely to show increased volatility, so caution is advised.
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