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  #951  
Old 01-10-2018, 05:29 PM
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FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR CONTINUES ITS RUN. LOWER PRICES STILL EXPECTED

EUR/USD

Forex News: The US Dollar continued to strengthen yesterday and the pair was dominated by the bears who managed to break the support at 1.1945 as previously anticipated.




Technical Outlook

The current bias is clearly bearish but the pair has travelled a long distance to the south without a proper pullback and now the Relative Strength Index and Stochastic have both entered oversold. These are signs that point towards a move up during today’s trading session but as long as the pair remains below the 50 EMA, we favour the downside after the said pullback is complete.

Fundamental Outlook

Today we have another slow day from a fundamental standpoint, without any major economic releases for the Euro or US Dollar.

GBP/USD

After moving once again above 1.3550, yesterday the pair finally broke the level as well as the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, indicating that the balance of power is tilting towards the short side.





Technical Outlook

At the time of writing the pair is showing good downside momentum and the 50 EMA seems broken with authority. Unless price quickly reverses and moves above the EMA, we expect to see a break of the support at 1.3500, which if it happens will most likely bring in additional sellers, making 1.3450 the next target.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Manufacturing Production will be today’s only notable release, scheduled at 9:30 am GMT. The report shows changes in the total value of goods generated by the manufacturing sector and usually has a medium but positive impact on the Pound if the actual reading surpasses estimates. Today’s forecast is a change of 0.3% compared to the previous 0.1%.

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  #952  
Old 01-11-2018, 06:16 PM
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FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR TAKES A BLOW AFTER CHINA NEWS. RESISTANCE STILL HOLDS, BUT FOR HOW LONG?

EUR/USD


Forex News: During yesterday’s trading session the US Dollar took a big hit after news emerged that China is planning to stop buying US government bonds. The pair rallied sharply into 1.2000 area but the level is still holding at the time of writing.




Technical Outlook

Yesterday’s move took the pair slightly above 1.2000 resistance but some of the losses were erased as the US Dollar recovered. Currently price is trading above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the US Dollar seems weak across the board, so we may very well see a break of 1.2000 and if that materializes, the pair is headed higher. On the other hand, a break of the 50 EMA would make 1.1945 the target once again.

Fundamental Outlook

The most notable release today will be the US Producer Price Index, which shows changes in the price that producers charge for their goods and services. The indicator has inflationary implications because a higher producer price often leads to a higher consumer price. The release is scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT and the expected change is 0.2% (previous 0.4%); numbers above forecast usually strengthen the US Dollar.

GBP/USD

After what appeared to be a clean break of 1.3500, the pair rallied on the back of US Dollar weakness generated by the China news mentioned above. However, resistance couldn’t be surpassed and the pair remained in a range.




Technical Outlook

As long as the pair remains between 1.3500 support and 1.3600 resistance, we consider it in a ranging phase, without clear direction. The oscillators are lacking momentum and the 50 EMA is starting to turn flat, supporting the view of a ranging market. A potential break of 1.3550 will take price to the top of the range (1.3600) and on the other hand, a bounce would make 1.3500 the target for the day.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any important economic releases for today, so the technical aspect and the US PPI will take center stage.
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  #953  
Old 01-13-2018, 12:26 AM
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FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR RECOVERS THEN DIPS AGAIN. INFLATION DATA AND RETAIL SALES IN THE LIMELIGHT

EUR/USD


Forex News: The ECB revealed yesterday that some changes to the interest rate or QE program might be coming in early 2018 and this was the reason for the strong climb, which was further fuelled by a disappointing U.S. Producer Price Index.



Technical Outlook

The pair rallied after a dip into 1.1945 support and the strong move seen during yesterday’s trading session broke the resistance at 1.2000 with authority. This move will probably extend into the key resistance at 1.2092 (last year’s high) and the probability of another drop below 1.2000 is slim, at least for the moment. The US data released today will surely have a strong impact on the US Dollar and thus on the pair’s direction.

Fundamental Outlook

The US Consumer Price Index will be released today at 1:30 pm GMT, showing changes in the price that consumers pay for their purchases. It acts as a main gauge of inflation and usually has a positive effect on the greenback if it posts numbers above forecast, which for today is 0.1%.

At the same time the US Dollar will be affected by the US Retail Sales release, which shows changes in the total value of sales made through retail outlets. It is an important gauge of consumer spending and higher numbers than the expected 0.5% usually strengthens the greenback.

GBP/USD

The US Dollar gave back all of the previous gains yesterday on the back of a disappointing PPI reading and the pair posted a bullish day, breaking above the 50 period EMA.




Technical Outlook

The latest momentum is clearly bullish based on the US Dollar weakness seen yesterday but the pair is facing a pretty strong resistance at 1.3550. If this barrier will be broken, we expect to see a push into the next key level at 1.3600. Possible moves lower should find good support at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but as long as price remains above it, our bias is bullish, although a clear trend is not yet established.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound has another slow fundamental day ahead but the pair will be fuelled by the U.S. events mentioned earlier and by the technical side.

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  #954  
Old 01-15-2018, 05:46 PM
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FOREX NEWS: UNITED STATES CELEBRATES MARTIN LUTHER KING DAY. LOW TRADING VOLUMES EXPECTED

EUR/USD


Forex News: Friday’s US data was mixed and did little to stop the assault of the Euro, which was boosted by positive news coming from the German political scene. The pair climbed strongly for the entire day, finishing the session more than 150 pips higher.




Technical Outlook

The pair is on a massive bull run and is headed towards the long term resistance at 1.2280 but until it gets there, we will most likely see a pullback. Usually after a strong climb price tends to retrace or to consolidate in a tight range due to profit taking (buyers close their positions by selling). The Relative Strength Index is also overbought, increasing the chance of a move lower but after the possible retracement is over, we expect higher prices.

Fundamental Outlook

Today banks in the United States will be closed in observance of Martin Luther King Day and no economic data will be released. Also, Europe will not release any data today and this may lead to a slow, ranging session.

GBP/USD

Friday the US Dollar remained under heavy selling pressure for the entire trading session and the pair posted massive gains, reaching a high at 1.3745.



Technical Outlook

The overall environment is clearly bullish but today it is very possible to see a move lower, basically for the same reasons as outlined above. The Relative Strength Index is overbought and usually after a strong move up, price tends to retrace south due to profit taking. After the pullback is complete we expect the pair to move higher unless the US Dollar gets a boost from unexpected news.

Fundamental Outlook

Similar to the Euro and US Dollar, the Pound will not be affected today by any important economic releases, so the technical aspect will prevail.

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  #955  
Old 01-16-2018, 06:16 PM
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FOREX NEWS: BULLISH RUN CONTINUES. OVERBOUGHT LEVELS SIGNAL PULLBACKS

EUR/USD


Forex News: Price action remained bullish yesterday but without any major developments coming from the fundamental scene. The pair reached the long term resistance at 1.2280 and bounced lower.




Technical Outlook

The massive bullish rally seen last week and yesterday has brought the pair into the resistance at 1.2280 and the Relative Strength Index in deep overbought territory. These two facts will most likely trigger a pullback today but after its completion, we expect the pair to break 1.2280 – 1.3000. If that happens, the pair will be in “uncharted” territory until it reaches the zone around 1.2600.

Fundamental Outlook

Both the Euro and US Dollar have a slow economic day ahead, without any notable releases, so the technical aspect will take center stage.

GBP/USD

The US Dollar couldn’t make any advances against the Pound, although some attempts were made, so the pair continued higher. This was a continuation of the momentum started last week, not the result of new developments on the fundamental scene.




Technical Outlook

The bulls are in clear control but the possibility of a retracement lower is higher than it was yesterday, due to the long distance travelled upwards in a short period of time. The RSI and Stochastic are extremely overbought, thus increasing the chances of a pullback. The levels to watch are 1.3745 as potential support and place where bullish movement may resume and 1.3860 as resistance.

Fundamental Outlook


The day’s main event will be the release of the British Consumer Price Index, scheduled at 9:30 am GMT and expected to show a yearly change of 3.0% compared to the previous 3.1%. This is the main gauge of inflation, showing changes in the price that consumers pay for the goods and services they purchase. The indicator usually strengthens the Pound if it posts readings above forecast.


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  #956  
Old 01-17-2018, 05:53 PM
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FOREX NEWS: RETRACEMENTS FINALLY HAPPENING. OVERALL BIAS STILL VERY BULLISH

EUR/USD


Forex News: The pair finally retraced lower during yesterday’s trading session after failing to break 1.2280 resistance. The move was mostly technical as no major economic data was released for either currency in the pair.



Technical Outlook

Several candles have shown long wicks on their upper part, piercing through 1.2280 and then retreating below the level. This is a clear sign that 1.2280 cannot be broken for the time being, so we expect the retracement started yesterday to extend below 1.2220, which is a minor support. A good place for upside movement to resume is somewhere around 1.2200 but if that barrier is broken, the pair will be headed into the 50 EMA.

Fundamental Outlook

The European Final Consumer Price Index will be released today at 10:00 am GMT, showing changes in the price paid by consumers for the goods and services they purchase. This is the main gauge of inflation but the Final version tends to have a lesser impact than the previous two versions; however, a higher change than the forecast 1.4% usually strengthens the Euro and takes the pair higher.

On the US Dollar side the only notable release will be the Industrial Production, scheduled at 2:15 pm GMT. The indicator has a low-to-medium impact and higher numbers than the forecast 0.3% have a positive influence on the greenback.

GBP/USD

Yesterday the British CPI matched the market consensus so the release didn’t have a strong impact on the Pound and the pair finally moved lower after a long period of bullish action.



Technical Outlook

Price action created resistance at 1.3820 and the pair dropped into the minor support at 1.3745 but the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic are still close to overbought levels so it is very possible to see a continuation of this retracement below 1.3745. The overall bias is still clearly bullish, so we expect a break of 1.3820 after the pullback is over.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any notable economic data releases for today so the technical aspect will decide the pair’s direction.

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  #957  
Old 01-18-2018, 07:10 PM
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[/i]FOREX NEWS: THE MARKET ENTERS CONSOLIDATION PHASE. STRONG BREAKOUTS ON THE HORIZON

EUR/USD


Forex News: The Final version of the European CPI was in line with expectations, posting a 1.4% change and the pair remained inside a range for most of yesterday’s session.



Technical Outlook

Price spiked above 1.2280 but immediately retraced below the level and dropped into the support at 1.2195. This type of behaviour means that the pair is likely to spend an extended period of time in a consolidation phase between 1.2195 and 1.2280 but once a clear breakout occurs, price will likely move in that direction for a longer period of time.

Fundamental Outlook

At 1:30 pm GMT the US Building Permits come out, showing how many permits were issued during the previous month. This is a good gauge of construction activity because getting a permit is the first step in starting a building and usually higher numbers strengthen the US Dollar but the impact is not always notable. Today’s forecast is 1.29 Million, very close to the previous 1.30 Million.


GBP/USD

Similar to the EUR/USD, the Cable showed mixed movement yesterday and remained confined in a relatively small range after a failed attempt to break resistance.



Technical Outlook

The overall bias remains clearly bullish but it seems the pair is taking a breather and is consolidating between 1.3745 and 1.3820. Until a breakout occurs we expect to see choppy movement and once it does, the pair will extend into 1.3860 or the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, depending on the direction of the breakout.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound will not be affected by major economic data today so the technical aspect will be the main price driver.

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  #958  
Old 01-19-2018, 05:43 PM
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FOREX NEWS: UPTREND STALLS. BRITISH RETAIL SALES EYED FOR POUND’S NEXT MOVE

EUR/USD


Forex News: The pair continued to trade in a range yesterday and showed a bounce at resistance followed by a failed break of support. The US data was mixed and didn’t have a notable impact on price action.



Technical Outlook

The uptrend is still strong but for the time being the pair remains in consolidation phase until 1.2195 support or 1.2280 resistance is broken. It must be noted that the bulls have tried several times to break 1.2280 and each time the attempt resulted in a huge pin bar candle (very long wick, small body), which is a sign of strong rejection. If the pair descends again below 1.2195 we expect to see an encounter with the 50 EMA.

Fundamental Outlook

Today’s only notable release for the pair will be the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, scheduled at 3:00 pm GMT. This survey gauges the opinions of consumers regarding current and future economic conditions and acts as a leading indicator of consumer spending. Higher readings indicate optimism and usually strengthen the US Dollar but the impact is limited if the actual number comes close or matches expectations. Today’s forecast is 97.0 while the previous was 95.9.

GBP/USD

The pair created a new top at 1.3942 but retraced lower and at the time of writing it is hovering close to the previous resistance at 1.3860. The outlook remains bullish but short term action is mixed.




Technical Outlook

The Relative Strength Index is moving lower but price is still moving higher. This is a bearish divergence that warns of a potential move south, which will have increased chances of happening if the pair moves below 1.3860. Such a scenario will have 1.3820 – 1.3800 as first target but if the pair stays above 1.3860, we expect another move towards 1.3942.

Fundamental Outlook

At 9:30 am GMT the British Retail Sales come out, showing changes in the total value of sales made through retail stores. Such sales represent the main part of consumer spending, thus higher numbers can have a positive impact on the currency. Today’s expected change is a drop of -0.8% from the previous 1.1%.

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  #959  
Old Yesterday, 06:01 PM
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FOREX NEWS: RANGE-BOUND TRADING AMID A LACKLUSTER FUNDAMENTAL SCENE

EUR/USD


Forex News: Friday we saw mixed price action and yet another move into resistance that resulted in a bounce lower. The US Consumer Sentiment survey posted a lower than expected reading but the US Dollar still gained against the Euro and overall price remained in range-mode.



Technical Outlook

Price bounced several times at 1.2280 resistance and this suggests that we will see moves lower before bullish price action can resume. For today we expect to see a slow and ranging session, confined within the channel created by 1.2280 and 1.2195. A break of the 50 period EMA will make 1.2100 the next target but it will probably take more than one day to reach it.

Fundamental Outlook

Today the Eurogroup Meetings will take place in Brussels but other than that, the fundamental scene is calm and without major economic data.

GBP/USD

Friday the pair made another attempt to break the previous high located at 1.3942 but this resulted in a perfect bounce lower, thus establishing the level as strong resistance for the future.



Technical Outlook

The pair showed several times that it is overextended and the last bounce at 1.3942 is indicative of an extended move to the downside. The first target for today will be 1.3820, followed by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. If the bulls take price higher from the current level and break 1.3942, we don’t expect strong moves above it.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound will not be affected today by economic data so the technical aspect will take center stage.


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