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  #1  
Old 01-20-2015, 11:47 AM
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Forex trading plan for Jan. 20

The main topic of the week is the upcoming ECB meeting on Thursday. The market players will continue making assumptions about what the European quantitative easing (QE) program would be like. In the meantime, watch German ZEW Economic Sentiment indicator due on Tuesday (10:00 GMT): this release may give the euro power for some correction up. Also pay attention to Chinaís GDP (02:00 GMT): the nationís economic growth will likely slow down, and a lower reading will increase bearish pressure on AUD/USD.
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Old 01-26-2015, 12:20 PM
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EUR/USD: life after the ECB


The main event of the past week was the long-awaited announcement of the quantitative easing program by the European Central Bank Ė as they say, better late than never. The ECB has joined the global currency war. This made EUR/USD decline to the target levels in the 1.12 area.

Whatís next? Greek Parliamentary election on Jan. 25 will be a new challenge for the euro. According to the latest polls, the left coalition Syriza is increasing its lead over the ruling party. Syriza will likely win and even if it fails to gain a majority, it might be able to form coalition with other parties like socialists and euro skeptics. Syrizaís victory will be negative for euro as the uncertainty about the euro areaís future will increase in this case. One can expect that the uncertainty wonít dissolve quickly and that the single currency will suffer.

In addition, next week pay attention to the meetings of the European finance ministers on Monday and Tuesday Ė they can make important comments about the ECBís decision and the results of Greek election. Also donít miss the regionís inflation figures on Friday.

Below 1.12 the next target for EUR/USD will be 1.10. Some reason for correction up may be provided by the Federal Reserveís meeting on Wednesday if the US central bank signals that it wonít hurry to raise interest rates.
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  #3  
Old 01-28-2015, 12:17 PM
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Forex trading plan for Jan. 28

US dollar got hit on Tuesday by the disappointing durable goods data: the headline reading contracted by 3.4% vs. 0.6% gain expected, while the base figure was down by 0.8%. The release is important, because itís a leading indicator of production: falling purchase orders signal that manufacturers will decrease activity.

As a result, the markets will expect the Federal Reserve to sound more cautious at the meeting tomorrow. The Fed will issue its statement at 18:00 GMT.

EUR/USD kept correcting up and reached 1.1370 (50% Fibo of the post-ECB decline). The correction may extend to the 1.1500 area (inverse Head & Shoulders target; resistance line since Dec. 2014). Support is at 1.1210/25, 1.1100 and 1.1050.

Pound apparently has good support in the psychological 1.5000 area. GBP/USD rose to 1.5200. Above this level the pair may rise to 1.5265 and 1.5370. Support is at 1.5050. There will be no news from Britain tomorrow.

USD/JPY is consolidating within a triangle. Support is in the 117.25/15 area. Resistance is in the 118.65/85 zone. A break of this range can bring the pair either to 119.50 and 120.00 or to 115.85. Note that as the pair still hasnít managed to break above the daily Ichimoku Cloud Ė thatís a reason to fear that the bulls will lack power. Much will depend on the outcome of the Fedís meeting.

Support for NZD/USD is at 0.7370 and 0.7325. Resistance is at 0.7515 and 0.7550. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to keep rates unchanged tomorrow and remove or diminish the tightening bias (20:00 GMT)
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  #4  
Old 01-30-2015, 09:39 PM
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GBP/USD expects new drivers

After a rapid decline in the first days of January GBP/USD got caught between 1.52 and 1.50. Here are the psychologically important levels as well as the support line connecting 2010 and 2013 lows.

The next Bank of England’s meeting will take place on February 5: no changes in monetary policy are expected. The UK regulator still remains in a hawkish trend, but sees no rush in raising rates amid slowing inflation. When started, the rate increases could be as slow as half a percentage point a year, the central bank’s chief economist Andy Haldane said in an interview this week.

All in all, British pound has better chances vs. USD than the other major currencies. At the same time, GBP/USD remains within a downtrend. There’s still some room for consolidation. Resistance is at 1.5350 and 1.5400. The next support is at 1.4919 and 1.4813.

In the first half of the next week the UK will release important manufacturing, construction and services PMIs – these releases will influence the Bank of England’s mood and the market’s attitude to GBP.
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Old 02-04-2015, 10:58 AM
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Forex trading plan for Feb. 4

EUR/USD has breached to the upside the triangle within which it was consolidating for about 5 days. Above 1.1440 (23.6% Fibo of the December-January decline) the pair may rise to 1.1500, 1.1550 and 1.1655 (38.2% Fibo). However, you should be aware of the risks to euroís correction up: bad data from the euro area (watch the regionís retail sales at 10:00 GMT) and good data from the US (watch ADP Employment report at 13:15 GMT and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI at 15:00 GMT). In addition, there will be news from the euro area: Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras will meet with European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker. Support for EUR/USD is at 1.1320, 1.1275 and 1.1210.
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Old 02-05-2015, 01:12 PM
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Forex trading plan for Feb. 5

EUR/USD has spiked above 1.1500 on Tuesday, but was capped by 100-period MA at H4. The rally has slowed down despite the upbeat euro zoneís PMIs, retail sales and weaker-than-expected US NFP by ADP, all released on Wednesday. According to our forecast, the downtrend in EUR/USD will soon resume. Decline below 1.1440 will bring euro down to 1.1355. Next support is at 1.1275 and 1.1210. Watch the German factory orders and the EU economic forecasts on Thursday. News from Greece will also impact the market. US are scheduled to release trade balance and unemployment claims tomorrow.

GBP/USD was boosted to the levels above 1.5200 by the better-than-expected UK services PMI (57.2 vs. 56.5). However, pound approached the downtrend resistance line just below 1.5300. Tomorrow traders will be focused on the Bank of Englandís meeting at 12:00 GMT. No changes in policy are expected. A break above 1.5300 can trigger an increase to 1.5475. USD/JPY may continue being sold on the upside in the area between 117.90 and 118.30 and bought on the downside in the 117.00 area.

NZD/USD pushed higher on Wednesday, supported by the neutral RBNZ stance and higher-than-expected milk prices. However, the pair faced resistance at $0.7450 (38.2% Fibo) and returned below the $0.7390 support later in the day. AUD/USD has also recovered some ground, retracing most of the post-RBA losses. The pair is facing resistance at 0.7850 and is vulnerable for a return to 0.7700. Next resistance is at 0.8000. Watch the Australian retail sales release at 00:30 GMT. USD/CAD can weaken to 1.2300. Resistance is at 1.2500 and 1.2625. EUR/GBP will be a sell in case of the break below 0.7500.
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Old 02-10-2015, 09:52 PM
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Forex trading plan for Feb. 11

Market sentiment on Tuesday remained fragile amid the increasing worries about the Greece’s future and the Ukrainian crisis. Meanwhile, expectations of the US rate hike support the American currency against the counterparts. Recovery on the oil market continues. US will release crude oil inventories data on Wednesday.

EUR/USD hovers around the 1.1300 mark. Eurogroup meeting will be the major event to watch on Wednesday: are the European financial officials ready to compromise? Any progress in the Greek question will render temporary support for the euro, but the overall picture remains negative. Any recoveries will likely be capped by the 1.5000/30 area. Next support lies at 1.1260, but we expect the euro to drift towards 1.1200 in the coming sessions if there is no good news for Greece.

GBP/USD holds above the 1.5200 mark, but the bullish demand is limited. UK released weak December manufacturing production figures on Tuesday (+0.1% versus +0.3% expected). There are no releases to watch on Wednesday, the market will be focused on the BOE inflation report that comes on Thursday. The inflation and economic forecasts can be lowered. Support for the cable is seen at 1.5033/00. Next bearish target lies at 1.4815.

USD/JPY pushed higher, testing the 119.20 area to the upside. Daily close above this mark would open the way to our next bullish target at 120.00 yen. USD/CHF consolidates below the 200-day MA at 0.9300.

Commodity block currencies remain under slight bearish pressure despite the increased expectations for monetary stimulus in China. AUD/USD remains supported at 0.7760 (short-term bullish trend line). Break lower would open the way to 0.7700. Watch Westpac consumer sentiment and new loans data tomorrow. NZD/USD holds in the 0.7445/7340 sideways range with the risks still skewed to the downside.
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Old 02-11-2015, 12:42 PM
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Key option levels

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (15:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: 1.1350 (EUR 458m), 1.1450 (EUR 1.2bln);

GBP/USD: 1.5000 (GBP 771m);

USD/JPY: 117.00 (USD 2bln), 118.00 (USD 1.4bln), 118.50 (USD 320m), 119.00 (USD 330m);

USD/CAD: 1.2350 (USD 300m), 1.2450 (USD 405m), 1.2500 (USD 353m);

AUD/USD: 0.7650 (AUD 529m), 0.7900 (AUD 202m), 0.7925 (AUD 417m);

NZD/USD: 0.7350 (NZD 251m);

AUD/JPY: 0.9400 (AUD 350m).
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Old 02-12-2015, 11:18 AM
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Forex trading plan for Feb. 12


On Wednesday US dollar remained supported with the US yields near 1-month highs. USD/JPY rose above 120.00. Next resistance levels are at 120.80 and 121.80. Support is in the 119.20/00 area.

AUD/USD is testing support at 0.7720. Below this level the pair can test 0.7600/0.7590. Watch Australian employment data at 00:30 GMT tomorrow: the forecasts are negative. Resistance is at 0.7850.

GBP/USD is making another test of the 7-month downtrend resistance line supported by the decline of EUR/GBP. Pound looks resilient despite lower than expected data from the UK on Tuesday. The Bank of England will release inflation report tomorrow commented by Governor Mark Carney. If the central bank forecasts negative inflation, sterling will get seriously hit.

At the moment of writing EUR/USD is consolidating in a very narrow range around 1.1300 preparing for a violent move as traders get more nervous. Support is at 1.1210 and resistance is at 1.1440. The EU economic summit will take place on Thursday. Here you can read more on the schedule of the Greek talks.

Later in the day on Thursday watch the US retail sales data: according to the forecasts, the figures will be better than in the previous release, but the indicator will still decline. This should limit the strength of the USD bulls.
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Old 02-13-2015, 11:48 AM
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Forex trading plan for Feb. 13

EUR/USD sits tight in the 1.1355/1.1270 area. The Greek debt deal is put off until the next week. The main questions are whether the bailout is extended and on what conditions as well as what happens to Greek banks. As thereís a hope for compromise, euroís holding its ground. Thereís a risk of a short squeeze to the upside on positive news about Greece. On Friday watch the releases of French, German and the euro area GDPs (06:30-10:00 GMT). So far euro didnít react much to the economic data releases, and Friday may be no different.

USD/JPY didnít stay above 120 for a long time and spiked down to 118.72 before once again recovering to the 119.50 area. The pair fluctuated on the news about the Ukraine. There also were some reports that Bank of Japanís officials are concerned about the negative effects of additional stimulus. Plus US retail sales data was a big disappointment. Still, USD/JPY has breached a big wedge/triangle to the upside, so the medium-term outlook is bullish. If the support at 119.20 and 118.70 (55-day MA) holds, it will be a good sign.

GBP/USD jumped to 1.5365 as the Bank of Englandís Governor Mark Carney said that the next move of the central bank will likely be to raise interest rates. For now traders have turned optimistic about GBP. As long as support at 1.5185/1.5200 holds, the odds will be of sterling rising to 1.5475. Note that pound faces resistance at 1.5380 (55-day MA, bottom of the bearish daily Cloud).

AUD/USD
was hit as the worries that the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut interest rates in March have returned. It would be interesting to see what the RBAís Governor Stevens has to say about the unexpected surges in Australian unemployment as he speaks tonight. Aussie can fall towards 0.7550 if he sounds dovish. Resistance is at 0.7700 and 0.7786.
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