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  #1  
Old 11-17-2014, 12:17 PM
xidder xidder is offline
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Post Daily market news by Cozfx

COZforex: GBP/USD weekly outlook for 17 to 21Nov

COZforex: The pound dropped to fresh 14-month lows against the dollar on Friday, after the Bank of England said inflation was likely to slow further, prompting investors to delay expectations for a UK rate hike until late next year.

GBP/USD dropped to lows of 1.5594, the weakest since September 2013, before pulling back to 1.5671 in late trade, off 0.25% for the day. The pair ended the week with losses of 1.32%.

Sterling remained broadly weaker after the BoE said in its closely watched quarterly inflation report on Wednesday that inflation is likely remain below its 2% target in the near term and fall below 1% at some point during the next 6 months.

The bank said it now expects inflation to take 3 years to return to its 2% target.

The annual rate of UK inflation dropped to a 5 year low of 1.2% in September.

BoE Governor Mark Carney noted that since August markets had pushed back expectations for a rate increase to October of next year and added that investors were right to delay expectations.

The bank said it continued to expect economic growth of 3.5% this year but pared its forecast for growth in 2015 to 2.9% from 3.1% in August.

In the US, data on Friday showed that retail sales rise 0.3% in October, ahead of forecasts for a 0.2% increase.

In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on Wednesday’s minutes of the Federal Reserve’s October meeting and Thursday’s report on the US consumer price index. Tuesday’s report on UK inflation and Wednesday’s BoE minutes will also be closely watched.


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  #2  
Old 11-24-2014, 12:01 PM
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Post Cozfx: Dollar vs. Yen weekly outlook: 24 - 28Nov

COZforex: The dollar ended the day lower against the yen on Friday after Japan’s finance minister voiced concerns over the weaker yen amid concerns over its impact on plans to revive growth.

The yen gained ground after Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso voiced concerns over the weaker yen, saying the speed of the currency’s recent decline against the dollar was “too fast.”

USD/JPY down 0.33% to 117.77 in late trade, after falling to lows of 117.36 immediately following the remarks. On Thursday the pair rises to highs of 118.96, the most since August 2007.

The yen has weakened broadly since the Bank of Japan unexpectedly expanded its stimulus program late last month. In contrast the Federal Reserve wound up its asset purchase program last month is expected to start raising rates around September 2015.

Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe dissolved parliament on Friday, clearing the way for elections to be held on December 15.

The decision came after data earlier in the week showed that Japan unexpectedly dropped into recession in the third quarter, with the economy contracting by an annualized 1.6%, following a 7.3% decline in the previous quarter.

The prime minister has also announced plans to delay a planned sales tax hike due to take place next October after an increase in April of this year played a part in plunging Japan into a recession.

In the week ahead, the US is to release a string of economic reports on Wednesday ahead of Thursday’s Thanksgiving holiday, including data on unemployment claims and durable goods orders. Tuesday’s speech by Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda will also be closely watched.


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  #3  
Old 12-01-2014, 11:15 AM
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Post Daily news by Cozfx - 01Dec2014

COZfx: Euro trading lower ahead of the Euro-zone’s inflation data

COZforex: For the past trading session, the EUR dropped 0.36% against the USD and closed at 1.2461.

Yesterday, data from Germany indicated that the nation’s monthly consumer prices remained flat in November, in line with market expectations and following a drop of 0.3% registered in the prior month. In addition, unemployment rate remained steady at 6.6% in November, lower than market expectations for a rise to a level of 6.7%. Meanwhile, the nation’s GfK consumer confidence index rise to 8.7 in December, higher than market expectations for an advance to a reading of 8.6. The index had recorded a level of 8.5 in the prior month.

In other economic news, the Euro-zone’s economic sentiment indicator registered an unexpected rise to a level of 100.8 in November, compared to market expectations of a drop to 100.3, while the region’s industrial confidence index improved unexpectedly to a level of -4.3 in November, compared to market expectations of a decline to a level of -5.5. On the other hand, M3 money supply in the Euro-zone advanced 2.5% in on an annual basis in October, compared to a similar rise in the previous month, while market anticipations were for it to advance 2.6%.

Separately, the ECB Chief, Mario Draghi, urged the region’s member nation governments to implement economic reforms in their respective nations, as failure to do so might “threaten the essential cohesion of the Union”. Furthermore, he cautioned the 18-member currency bloc that unemployment, lack of productivity and structural reforms are the three major risks surrounding the Euro-economy.

In technical analysis, COZforex senior currency strategist Ian • Quigley said, EUR/USD is predicted to find support at 1.2421, and a decline through could take it to the next support level of 1.2394. Meanwhile, the pair is predicted to find its first resistance at 1.2500, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance line of 1.2551.

Trading trends in the Euro today are expected to be determined by the Euro-zone’s crucial CPI data, scheduled in a few hours.


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  #4  
Old 12-08-2014, 10:32 AM
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Post COZfx: NZD/USD weekly outlook: 08 to 12Dec14

COZforex: The New Zealand dollar dropped to a 4 week low against its US counterpart on Friday, as stronger than forecast US nonfarm payrolls data bolstered bets that the Federal Reserve will begin to raise rates sooner than previously thought.

NZD/USD hit 0.7700 on Friday; the pair's lowest since November 7, before subsequently consolidating at 0.7715 by close of trade on Friday, down 0.86% for the day and 1.61% lower for the week. In technical analysis, COZforex senior currency strategist Ian • Quigley said, NZD/USD is likely to find support at 0.7659, the low from November 7, and resistance at 0.7821, the high from December 4.

The US dollar rallied after the Department of Labor said that the US economy added 321,000 jobs in November, far more than the 225,000 forecast by economists and the largest monthly increase in almost three years.

October’s figure was revised up to 243,000 from a previously reported 214,000, while the unemployment rate remained unchanged at a six-year low of 5.8%.

The upbeat data added to the view that the strengthening economic recovery may prompt the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates sooner than markets are expecting.

A policy decision by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on Wednesday will also be in focus.

Meanwhile, China is to produce what will be closely watched reports on trade, consumer prices and industrial production in the week ahead. The Asian nation is New Zealand's second-largest trade partner.


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  #5  
Old 12-15-2014, 11:04 AM
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COZfx: USD/CAD weekly outlook during Dec15 to 19

COZforex: The US dollar rise to more than 5 year highs against the commodity exposed Canadian dollar on Friday amid the ongoing decline in oil prices and after a strong report on U.S. consumer sentiment.

USD/CAD hit highs of 1.1590, the most since July 2009, before easing back to 1.1578 in late trade.

Oil prices hit lows not seen since 2009 on Friday, with Brent below $62 per barrel and US crude down to $57 a barrel after the International Energy Agency cut its forecast for global oil demand for the fifth time in 6 months. Canada is a major oil exporter and the currency's sensitivity to crude prices has intensified as prices have tumbled.

The greenback received an additional boost after data showing US consumer sentiment rise to an almost 8 year high in December.

The preliminary reading of the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index rise to 93.8, the highest level since January 2007 and ahead of forecasts of 89.7. Consumer sentiment was boosted by the improving outlook for employment and wage growth and lower gasoline prices.

The US dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, recovered from session lows of 88.12 following the report to settle at 88.34, still off 0.26% for the day. On Monday the index rose to a five year high of 89.53.


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Old 12-19-2014, 11:03 AM
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COZfx: AUD/USD off 5-year lows

COZforex: The Australian dollar was higher against its US counterpart on Thursday, pulling away from a 5 year trough but gains were expected to remain limited as the Federal Reserve said it expected to start raising interest rates next year.

AUD/USD hit 0.8163 amid early European trade, the session high; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.8161, climbing 0.43%. In technical analysis, COZforex senior currency strategist Ian • Quigley said, AUD/USD is predicted to find support at 0.8088, and a drop through could take it to the next support line of 0.8032. Meanwhile, the pair is predicted to find its first resistance at 0.8219, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance line of 0.8294.

In commodities, LME Copper prices dropped 1.31% or $84.0/MT to $6306.0/MT. Meanwhile, Aluminium prices dropped 0.61% or $11.5/MT to $1863.5/MT.

The US dollar was boosted after the Fed said it would be "patient" before raising rates, guidance which it said is consistent with earlier assurances statement that rates would stay low "for a considerable time."

The central bank acknowledged the improvement in the US labor market and noted that the economy is making progress toward its goals in inflation and employment. At the bank’s post policy meeting press conference Fed Chair Janet Yellen said the Fed was unlikely to raise rates for the "next couple of meetings" indicating that a move in April at the earliest is possible.

Also Thursday, Statistics New Zealand reported that the country's gross domestic product increased by 1.0% in the third quarter, compared to expectations for a 0.7% rise and up from a growth rate of 0.7% in the 3 months to June.

Later in the day, the US was to release data on initial jobless claims and manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region.


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Old 12-26-2014, 11:20 AM
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COZfx: Gold price remains below $1,200

COZforex: Gold prices pulled away from a 3 week low on Tuesday, but still remained below the $1,200 threshold as the strong US dollar continued to weigh on the precious metal.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for February delivery were up 0.23% to $1,182.50. The February contract ended Monday's session 1.35% lower at $1,179.80 an ounce.

The dollar remained supported after the Federal Reserve signalled last week that it was on track to raise interest rates next year but said it was taking a patient stance.

Higher US interest rates would boost the greenback and weigh on gold, which has benefited from central bank liquidity and a low interest rate environment since the 2008 financial crisis. The central bank also acknowledged the improvement in the US labor market and noted that the economy is making progress toward its goals in inflation and employment.

Markets shrugged off industry data released on Monday showing that US existing home sales declined by 6.1% in November to 4.93 million units from a revised total of 5.25 million the previous month.

Investors were now eyeing additional US economic reports to be released later in the day, including final third-quarter GDP data, as well as on core durable goods orders and new home sales.

Trading volumes were expected to remain light this week with many investors away for the Christmas holiday and ahead of the New Year's holiday.


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Old 12-29-2014, 10:52 AM
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COZfx: Oil declines during stronger dollar, crude oversupply in US

COZforex: Oil prices dropped Friday, tumbling as the dollar strengthened and a supply glut in top consumer the United States trumped worries about falling production from Libya.

The market had come under pressure from Wednesday's Energy Department report, which showed a 7.3 million-barrel rise in crude inventories to their highest December level on record. Analysts had expected a seasonal decline.
The slide was exacerbated as oil prices reacted to a strengthening dollar index.

"There's still significant weakness in confidence, and that means that we're going to have occasional retests to the downside," said Richard Hastings of Global Hunter Securities. The strengthening dollar index triggered the slide Friday, he said.

Additionally, the market continued to reel from bearish storage data just before the Christmas holiday.

"The numbers on Wednesday were really bearish, and it's possible the market is still trying to digest them," said Andrew Lebow of Jefferies in New York. "Maybe the path of least resistance is down here, given that we've been in a long down trend."
Crude imports by Japan, the world's fourth-biggest oil buyer, ddeclined 17.3 percent in November from a year earlier to 14.68 million kilolitres (3.08 million bpd), government data showed on Thursday.

Brent crude fell 94 cents to $59.34 at 2:21 p.m., while US crude fell $1.29 to $54.55 in thin trade as many countries were still on holiday.


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Old 01-05-2015, 10:48 AM
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COZfx: USD/CHF weekly outlook: 05 – 09Jan

COZforex: The dollar reached parity against the Swiss franc for the first time since December 2010 on Friday and rise to more than 4 year highs against the euro after remarks by European Central Bank President Mario Draghi fuelled expectations for full blown quantitative easing.

In an interview with German financial newspaper Handelsblatt Draghi said the risk of the ECB not fulfilling its mandate of price stability is higher now than 6 months ago, signalling that it is moving closer to implementing quantitative easing measures. The annual rate of euro zone inflation was just 0.3% in November, well below the ECB’s target of close to but just below 2%.

USD/CHF was up 0.83% to 1.0014 in late trade as weakness in the euro added to pressure on the Swiss National Bank to defend its 1.20 per euro exchange rate floor.

Switzerland’s central bank imposed the exchange rate floor in September 2011 to head off the threat of deflation and protect the country's exporters from a rapidly rising currency.

The SNB eased monetary policy in December, when it imposed negative interest rates on commercial bank deposits, in a bid to prevent the continued appreciation of the Swiss franc against the euro.

The single currency was also pressured lower after data showed that manufacturing activity in the euro area grew at a slower rate than initially estimated in December, adding to concerns over the outlook for fourth quarter growth.

In the week ahead, investors will be turning their attention to Friday’s US nonfarm payrolls report for further indications on the strength of the recovery in the labor market. Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting minutes and the SNB’s report on foreign currency reserves will also be closely watched.


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Old 01-19-2015, 09:45 AM
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COZfx: EUR/CHF weekly outlook: 19 – 23Jan

COZforex: The euro regained some ground against the Swiss franc on Friday after posting its largest ever one day fall against the franc in the previous session and hit fresh 12-year lows against the dollar during prospects for monetary easing by the European Central Bank as early as this week.

The euro posted its largest ever single-day decline against the Swiss franc on Thursday after the Swiss National Bank abandoned its 1.20 per euro exchange rate cap that it imposed in September 2011.

SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan said Thursday the cap had “protected the Swiss economy from serious harm” but added that maintaining the policy was not “sustainable or sensible in the long term.”

“The euro has depreciated considerably against the US dollar and this, in turn, has caused the Swiss franc to weaken against the US dollar. In these circumstances, the SNB concluded that enforcing and maintaining the minimum exchange rate for the Swiss franc against the euro is no longer justified,” the central bank said.

The central bank also cut interest rates deeper into negative territory, a move intended to dissuade investors from buying the franc.

The diverging monetary policy stance between the Federal Reserve, which is poised to raise interest rates and central banks in Europe and Japan, has seen the dollar strengthen broadly in recent months.

The surprise move indicated that the SNB is anticipating that the ECB will implement quantitative easing measures at its upcoming meeting on Thursday, in an attempt to spur inflation and growth in the euro area.

An interim ruling last Wednesday, which is likely to be accepted by the European Court of Justice, said the ECB was free to pursue a bond purchasing program without legal challenge.

EUR/CHF was trading at 0.9930 late Friday, up 1.75% for the day after falling to all-time lows of 0.8696 on Thursday. The pair still ended the week with losses of more than 17%.


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